- ByJohn Pricci - On the Line
- May 17, 2024
- 15 Comments
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL — A reluctant favorite will enter the Pimlico Race Course starting gate while the early morning line favorite is on the sidelines waiting for antibiotics to clear his system.
Let’s just say that if today were the first Saturday in June, Muth would be in the starting gate, too.
Right, HorseRaceInsider.com is still on the side of putting on the best and safest show horse racing this event deserves. A traditionalist by nature, I say let history be damned on this significant issue.
That said, a handicapping review of the Preakness 149 All-States Pick 5. May the best horses win and may all have a safe trip today in Baltimore:
PIMLICO May 18, 2024
JAMES MURPHY STAKES Race 9
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 4-Twirling Point (4-1) slower but making incremental improvement and has won previously going synth-to-turf. A winner at the trip, chance to dominate the pace with Frankie.
BEST VALUE: 7-Crystal Quest (6-1) undefeated at 3, is 2-for-2 on turf, including one at the trip and comes in fresh seeking first open-stakes score off strong last out figure; remains progressive, half mile breeze 4th fastest of 28 peers working week of May 11.
PRICE SHOT: 9-Echo Lane (8-1) yet another progressive type earned lifetime best Thoro-Graph in return to turf last out; 2-for-3 on grass, 1-for-7 doing anything else.
EXOTICA: 12-Fulmineo (6-1) work well of May 10 3rd fastest of 29 peers. 1-Lucky Jeremy (10-1) make first start for Maker switches to turf; live at a price.
Main Track Only: 2-Copper Tax (7-5) 5-Speedypass (10-1)
SIR BARTON STAKES Race 10
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 8-Tuscan Sky (5-2) earned layover figure winning a Fair Ground allowances then regressed badly un G2 Wood Memorial. Appears speed of the speed and promise of sloppy track helps; workout week of May 11 was 7th fastest of 222 peers, presumably in new blinkers.
BEST VALUE: 10-Imperial Gun (7-2) has shown incremental improvement this year, just missing in overnight stakes at Oaklawn Park last out; lone win at this trip and Rosario takes the re-ride for Asmussen barn.
PRICE SHOT: 6-Gould’s Gold (8-1) paired up competitive figure efforts in 2024, benefits from recent 9 furlongs coming off a lone sprint; McPeek having profitable year as well as in non-graded stakes; switch to barn rider Hernandez here.
EXOTICA: 5-Corporate Power (9-5) has similar pattern as Gould’s Gold and handles wet footing; morning line underlay. 7-Mighty Message (10-1) showed improvement on good track in distance debut last out.
JIM McKAY TURF SPRINT Race 11
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 12-Beer Can Man (5-2) owns the best company lines, 6 of his 7 turf wins have come at this trip and appeared to need his season’s debut badly; Prat, who’s won on her previously, rides back off the dull try for one of his top clients—Phil D’Amato—in SoCal.
BEST VALUE(S): 8-Boat’s a Rockin’ (6-1) moved forward in her 2023 finale now re-enters Kulp barn that’s 24% with turf runners and also with 9-days + returnees: Horse for Distance (10) 5-3-1 and half mile breeze 7th fastest of 55 peers working week of May 9. 10-Charging (5-1) brilliant work week of May 9 was 12th fastest of 285 peers; and Morley profitable with 325 turf starters and in non-graded stakes; Horse for Distance (6) 3-0-1.
PRICE SHOT: 9-That’s Right (15-1) her last reverted to top form after reentering the Michael Moore barn, who had a winner under similar circ*mstances on ‘Susan’ undercard; 5-for-11 at this trip and 0-for-8 doing anything else.
EXOTICA: 11-Willy (9-2) Horse for Distance (5) 3-2-0. 1-Groom’s All Business (8-1) Horse for Distance (8) 4-0-2. 2-Carotari (12-1) 2-for-2 PIM turf. 4-Mid Day Image (20-1) Jacobson profitable 20% LAY-2 scenario.
G3 DINNER PARTY STAKES Race 12
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 10-Emmanuel (5-2) was overmatched in G1 Makers Mark Mile following strong win in G3 Canadian Turf; winner of half his 10 turf starts including a win around two turns; beaten half-length when third in this race last year.
BEST VALUE: 9-Beatbox (5-1)was fourth of 11 in rapidly run G2 Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds, freshened and working strongly for return, his work the week of May 11 was 21st fastest of 129 peers; DeVaux is 20% with this spacing and went 3-for-3–all stakes–here yesterday.
PRICE SHOT: 12-Funtastic Again (12-1) made huge leap forward to win 3-year-old finale at Kentucky Downs. Freshened since and breeze week of May 10 was 4th fastest of 42 peers; Johnny for Ward here.
EXOTICA: 1-Highland Chief (12-1) exits live race (1-for-1) and Motion having profitable 2024; pole sitter. 5-Running Bee (9-2) exits key race (2-4 starters); 4-Atone (10-1) was good second in G3 Kentucky Cup Classic; Maker switching to Saez.
G1 PREAKNESS STAKES Race 13
MOST PROBABLE WINNER: 3-Catching Freedom (7-2), improving incrementally, raced unusually close to early pace, only speed to finish close-up fourth in testing early against near-triple dead heat Derby finishers. Benefits from last, well posted with Flavien.
BEST VALUE: 7-Just Steel (12-1), troubled at the break in Derby, was allowed to run off for position rated get checked behind rivals but paid the price and stopped; on good-race bad-race pattern and likely to rebound with notable rider switch to Rosario.
EXOTICA: 5-Mystik Dan (8-5) make no mistake, will include him in boxed exacta with MPW and BV. 8-Tuscan Gold (4-1) pointed here this winter and spring. 9-Imagination (3-1) heads-up work with Muth on May 10. 2-Uncle Heavy (20-1) work week of May 11 fastest of 54 peers.
when more than one horse appears in any category, preferences are listed in graded order
this is a live column that will be upgraded throughout the weekend
- preakness stakes, BALTIMORE, PIMLICO RACE COURSE, DINNER PARTY STAKES, SIR BARTON STAKES, JIM MC KAY STAKES
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15 Responses
A recent Twin Spires Two Buck rebate on Forever Young is wagered back on Catching Freedom today for Photos by Toni. Thinking she might enjoy watching the following video listed below. He sure looks fit. Riders Up and a safe journey to all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bxi1ZFVnzyw
May 1810:41:58 AMAcceptedPimlico13Win$2.003$2.00
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Dennis, your thoughtfulness sure made Toni’s morning. “Tell McD thank you and God bless.” Ditto from me.
And, of course, a safe and speedy journey to all competitors.
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John and McD – I’m gonna try Tuscan Gold today thinking he ran pretty well in his first try against winners and stakes company. He’s moving forward on pace lines and final speed and should be ready to fire best shot with Gaffalione and Chad in his corner. Just Steel should rebound off his Derby try and can be the price player today. Catching Freedom and Mystik Dan (benefits from wet track) would be no surprise. Also like Mugatu and Uncle Heavy under in the exotics. Good luck to all and enjoy the races!!
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Stephen, It appears that nearly everyone fell into Wayne’s honey trap … it’s horse racing … Tuscan Gold disappointed many, he struggled over the wet track.
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Now that Fulmineo, lightening fast in Italian, gave me the gimmicks plus Flavian sure handed tide and win, I can humbly state my Preakeness # s. Mystic Dan, after having eating a homemade Mystic pizza, and salad of course, then Catching Freedom , Tuscan Gold , Just Steel, the newly hyped Imagination and Seize the Grey. Tuscan Gold, since he ran the same distance in his only third race in his third different track, maybe mature enough to get into the exacta and I’m boxing him with the previously mentioned horses. Imagination s workout seem troublesome but ,hey, can’t play them all, esp. Baffert’ s horse on top. The Preakness , even ‘with lipstick on’, it does not excite me. Definitely ,The Weakest Link of the Big Three races! Oh yes ,Seize the Grey, WPS, just to over cover my bets..
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Good handicapping, keeping Seize the Grey in your mix and of course a proper straight saver wager, kudos JG. Sadly, I wasn’t that clever …
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Thanks , it wasn’t what I was hoping for but it beats the alternative. Two questions: Why did Dettori, with his experience, decide to ride wide for the whole race, esp. since that horse had never run the distance ? Any comment about Racing Nation’ s main opinion writer matter on Pimlico s borrowed time, and $, for life support, and probably a casino addition in the future? Isn’t that a band-aid on a huge bleeding cut ?Just because is the Second oldest track is besides today’s realities.
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I think Frankie thought he was riding the best part of the racetrack going two turns, and I’m not sure his horse was talented enough to run with the leader; inexperience showed.
As far as Pimlico’s future is concerned, the makeover, which was long overdue, can make Old Hilltop New Hilltop and the great Maryland racing fans will respond favorable. As Lukas says, people have opinions, horses have the facts. Alas, we shall see.
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Yeah that was my impression as well, that Frankie was of the belief that he was on the best part of a wet track.
Reminds me of the masterful job Mike Smith did in the BC Distaff at Belmont with Inside Information, riding the tractor tire path the whole way. That horse was not getting beat that day anyhow, but his path choice turned it into an historic performance – well in the top 10 all time BC moments – perhaps even higher considering what a killer field that was.
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Points well taken, Doc. As you remember, it was “Chop Chop” Jorge Chavez who started that trend in New York …
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Indeed, Jorge was excellent at reading the track day to day. Both at Belmont as well as on the AQU Inner.
I think Mystic Dan deserves some props today. I really was kind of expecting a bounce after the Derby exertion, but he ran big. I think I’d pass on the Belmont, give him a couple more weeks rest, and maybe aim for a Dwyer into Travers plan or something.
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Yes , but Ms Brothers, right before the race, she mentioned the inner part of the track was the fastest. A few moments later , Dettori takes ” The Road Not Taken”. Wonder about the after race dialog between Baffert’ and Dettori..and how much Ego is involved in such decisions by veterans..
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I think that would be the best plan for ‘Dan’; point for the Travers–and a fresh Sierra Leone will be a tough customer. Besidesm he deserves a rest. He’s very classy but only a flesh and blood equine.
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Yep – I guess it being McPeek, its more likely that he’d go in the Haskell as a ‘prep’ than the Dwyer, due to the bigger purse. I could definitely see the merits in just stabling him at Belmont and letting him have a relaxing few weeks and an 18 minute van ride to AQU on Dwyer morning though.
Also through pure selfishness, I’d like to see the Derby winner run in person.
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Understand your “selfishness,” spoken like a true fan Doc. Monmouth would suit his running style given two turns but most significantly, it’s Grade 1 and more money, He’d have to beat a designated Baffert, you understand.
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